alisa
01-20 03:44 PM
This is all for EB-3.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
I think this is the best case scenario.
Pardon my ignorance, but I am assuming that EB-2 eats up from EB-3's numbers, and so EB-2 wait times will be better than what is estimated here for EB-3, at the expense of the EB-3 waiting times ofcourse.
For India:
Depletion_rate = 10500/year
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year
For ROW:
Depletion_rate = 25000/year (Kinda curves-fits to retire all 2001 backlog by 2006, and 2002 backlog by 2008)
Accumulation_rate = 19500/year (Estimated to be the same as that of India)
All numbers rounded off. No
For 2001: Year_current = 2001 + (123194/Depletion_rate)
For 2002: Year_current = 2002 + (160274/Depletion_rate)
For 2003 and later
Year_current = Year_applied + ( (Year_applied-2002)*(Accumulation_rate-Depletion_rate) + 160274) / Depletion_rate
Here are the results. YA is year applied. YC is Year your PD will be current.
No processing delay assumed.
...........India.. ROW
D_rate 10000 25000
A_rate 19500 19500
YA YC YC
2001 2013 2006
2002 2018 2008
2003 2020 2009
2004 2022 2010
2005 2024 2011
2006 2026 2012
2007 2028 2012
2008 2030 2013
2009 2032 2014
2010 2034 2015
I am open to suggestions on how this model can be improved.
If this model, and these estimates are reasonably accurate, lets come out with our own visa bulletin.
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sumansk
01-17 02:55 PM
Just Made a my Contribution.
Thanks
Thanks
raj2007
03-07 02:50 PM
I am employed with a company and I work for a client through a preferred vendor. I am in a slightly difficult situation. I would like to do AC21 with the vendor and negotiate for more. This might irk the vendor and he could in turn tell my employer about this. I cannot put in my papers with my employer without having an offer from the vendor in hand. I cannot join the client directly because of hiring freeze.
My question is, if due to the above exercise my employer cancels my H1, will I be immediately be out of status, does having EAD means that I will be in status even if my H1 is cancelled?.. How much time will I have to join a new employer using EAD if my H1 is cancelled or revoked.?.
Thanks,
Your vendor is desi guy?
I have never seen vendor informing the employer.
You are ok even if he cancels ur H1.
My question is, if due to the above exercise my employer cancels my H1, will I be immediately be out of status, does having EAD means that I will be in status even if my H1 is cancelled?.. How much time will I have to join a new employer using EAD if my H1 is cancelled or revoked.?.
Thanks,
Your vendor is desi guy?
I have never seen vendor informing the employer.
You are ok even if he cancels ur H1.
2011 50th Birthday Quotes
GCKaIntezar
01-18 09:14 AM
Its pathetic to see this thread going only to 5 pages, whereas the other thread w/discussion on 485 filing took that to almost 100 pages.
more...
amitjoey
07-05 04:35 PM
Same here. Here's my small contribution in your big effort.
Best regards,
Google Order #853854384931851
Thanks a lot.
Best regards,
Google Order #853854384931851
Thanks a lot.
dilber
06-26 05:28 PM
May be you scared the USCIS with your phone calls and they just wanted you out of their systems. So that you don't rally other people and then they might have to really become efficient.:cool:
BTW really happy for you... enjoy:o
I got a red for this with comment "bhaag saale, really happy for you? kaam c=dhanda nahi hai kya?"
Translation: Get lost you idiot, happy for you? don't you have any other work?
Not that I care about it too much but shouldn't highly skilled people be more responsible, and courteous. :cool:
BTW really happy for you... enjoy:o
I got a red for this with comment "bhaag saale, really happy for you? kaam c=dhanda nahi hai kya?"
Translation: Get lost you idiot, happy for you? don't you have any other work?
Not that I care about it too much but shouldn't highly skilled people be more responsible, and courteous. :cool:
more...
gk_2000
08-10 03:19 PM
EB-3 keyboard tigers are back to discuss how to get GC'ssssss:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Sir,
Thanks for your valuable contribution with "relevant" post
Sir,
Thanks for your valuable contribution with "relevant" post
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MahaBharatGC
10-22 04:40 PM
:p
All - plz take it easy as this is solely individual opinion.
When a country is prospering means the jobs are getting created. That is what happened until Clinton Era. But I know that this cannot be forever. Every field is going to reach the peak, falls back and hopefully straightens.
Our IT field is somewhat dependent on other industries to create jobs. So, if other industries are all shipping the operations to foreign soil or loosing steam due to competition in free trade how well a country can prosper. You cannot have 100% service oriented country...it is only possible for small countries like Singapore...but not for big countries like US of A where they have plenty of land.
So, my point here is if you want GC you should have job now (EBn) and future. So, if jobs are getting created then you will have job today and tomorrow too.
So, simply saying "I support immigration" does not mean anything. It could be a REAL political statement like our famous Indian politicians. So, at this time I do not believe nobody as this is all still nacent. once someone takes office, we should be ready to push with our goals in mind.
It is good to debate between one another but let us have plans to how to deal for our existence...
All - plz take it easy as this is solely individual opinion.
When a country is prospering means the jobs are getting created. That is what happened until Clinton Era. But I know that this cannot be forever. Every field is going to reach the peak, falls back and hopefully straightens.
Our IT field is somewhat dependent on other industries to create jobs. So, if other industries are all shipping the operations to foreign soil or loosing steam due to competition in free trade how well a country can prosper. You cannot have 100% service oriented country...it is only possible for small countries like Singapore...but not for big countries like US of A where they have plenty of land.
So, my point here is if you want GC you should have job now (EBn) and future. So, if jobs are getting created then you will have job today and tomorrow too.
So, simply saying "I support immigration" does not mean anything. It could be a REAL political statement like our famous Indian politicians. So, at this time I do not believe nobody as this is all still nacent. once someone takes office, we should be ready to push with our goals in mind.
It is good to debate between one another but let us have plans to how to deal for our existence...
more...
alisa
01-23 08:49 PM
And hoping that some more data, some more pointers, and some more information comes out of this thread, before it dies.
Data and estimates and links to websites needed for estimating when a PD would become current.
Data and estimates and links to websites needed for estimating when a PD would become current.
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meridiani.planum
07-28 12:07 PM
To all the above liberal minded people who said what's wrong with this. Lord Ganesha is symbol of intelligence and soma (the divine liquor) is not associated with Him.
Now what if your faces or your parents pictures are put on toilet seats and covers. Do you say the same thing?? Now there is no difference between you guys and M** F** Hussain who choses our God to draw objectionable pictures. You all are hyprocrites.
beer != toilet seat.
picture-of-Ganesha != picture-of-your-parents.
Please dont sensationalize this and try to make it news when it is'nt.
People like VHP and Bajrang Dal do this to exploit divisions that result in more votes for them (its almost the way Hitler exploited divisions against the Jews). As educated, skilled, tech-savvy, responsible adults atleast we should all refrain from getting caught up in all this.
Move on guys. Worry about retrogression and priority dates. Even those stupid threads on LUDs are more productive than this one.
Now what if your faces or your parents pictures are put on toilet seats and covers. Do you say the same thing?? Now there is no difference between you guys and M** F** Hussain who choses our God to draw objectionable pictures. You all are hyprocrites.
beer != toilet seat.
picture-of-Ganesha != picture-of-your-parents.
Please dont sensationalize this and try to make it news when it is'nt.
People like VHP and Bajrang Dal do this to exploit divisions that result in more votes for them (its almost the way Hitler exploited divisions against the Jews). As educated, skilled, tech-savvy, responsible adults atleast we should all refrain from getting caught up in all this.
Move on guys. Worry about retrogression and priority dates. Even those stupid threads on LUDs are more productive than this one.
more...
bala50
12-20 06:02 PM
I was under the impression that 10 - 15 days gap or 1 month gap can be justified as vacation or sick leave as long as "employer - employee " relations exists (not terminated by the employer). One whole year cannot be justified under this.
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jetguy777
03-09 12:53 PM
by the way shusterman predicted ROW will retrogress in his blog found at shusterman.com there was also an IV post about this (abbout somethin like shusterman got a call from clinton or something)..........
so what happened to the quareterly spill over ???????????
Last year's April visa bulletin contained the following note:
D. INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual �per-country� limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially. "
At the risk of stating the obvious there was not any spillover this month but there is hope that we may see spillover in future months.
so what happened to the quareterly spill over ???????????
Last year's April visa bulletin contained the following note:
D. INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual �per-country� limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially. "
At the risk of stating the obvious there was not any spillover this month but there is hope that we may see spillover in future months.
more...
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conundrum
11-10 02:05 PM
Bump
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alterego
07-13 11:19 AM
When a few IV members predicted the rapid movment of EB2 -I, they were dismissed as naive, and fantasizing. Yet, here we are with the EB-2-I PD current for June 2006. Lately, I'm having more faith in the philosophical statement -"The truth is unknowable". :) and having less and less faith on the speculations/ predictions of most IV members.
Are you sure about your above statement? My interpretation is since the processing date for 485s at the Nebraska service center is July 27th 2007, all the 485S received before that date have been processed, and are waiting only for visa number assignment.
I would like to fantasize next fee weeks my assumption is correct:). My PD is EB2-I feb 2006, RD July 2nd 2007.
Fair enough, you are free to fantasize. :) I didn't mean to rain on your party!
I'd wish too that what you said is true. Hey, I am a well wisher of EB immigration.
However my understanding is that many 485s were not receipted like yours. Also the processing dates have stuck at that time now. So although admittedly I am not sure how many of those applications were in fact processed, I suspect it is not the majority. There are indications that there are 200-250K pending EB 485s of which 40-45% are EB India and another 15% or so Chinese. Looking at the bigger picture if 35% of these are EB2. I can't see how the EB2 backlog can be cleared before the end of the next fiscal year.
I whole heartedly agree with you that our speculation and guesswork is often wrong, but it gives us something to do while we wait!
Are you sure about your above statement? My interpretation is since the processing date for 485s at the Nebraska service center is July 27th 2007, all the 485S received before that date have been processed, and are waiting only for visa number assignment.
I would like to fantasize next fee weeks my assumption is correct:). My PD is EB2-I feb 2006, RD July 2nd 2007.
Fair enough, you are free to fantasize. :) I didn't mean to rain on your party!
I'd wish too that what you said is true. Hey, I am a well wisher of EB immigration.
However my understanding is that many 485s were not receipted like yours. Also the processing dates have stuck at that time now. So although admittedly I am not sure how many of those applications were in fact processed, I suspect it is not the majority. There are indications that there are 200-250K pending EB 485s of which 40-45% are EB India and another 15% or so Chinese. Looking at the bigger picture if 35% of these are EB2. I can't see how the EB2 backlog can be cleared before the end of the next fiscal year.
I whole heartedly agree with you that our speculation and guesswork is often wrong, but it gives us something to do while we wait!
more...
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senthil1
06-12 03:10 PM
If no H1b restrictions then mostly lottery for new H1b for every year( I think 115k is not enough as Consulting companies will rush to get the quota on first day) unless unlimited H1b was given. Lottery is very bad for good companies. Best way is to put restrictions only for new H1bs and exclude from extensions and transfers.
If people think that after CIR fails, we will have a better chance of getting favorable provisions with some other Bill or on coat tails of appropriation bills, it could be a risky gamble.
However, looking at the mood of Senate there is a very good chance that post-CIR we might be thrown a curve ball with some hard line H1B restrictions and fee increases extracted from almost passed CIR. So opposing CIR due to H1 alone is not the best strategy.
CIR is on the table because there are lot of interests driving its existence. If Compete America and us(IV) cannot drive in a small amendment into a popular bill like this, it would be a big blow. Is there enough bite in the coalition to create our own bill or fight an anti-H1 wave out there? That's up for judgement.
My point is, please do not assume H1B status quo will stay that way even if CIR fails. Like someone pointed out in these forums, big Corporations might enlist these anti-consulting restrictions/fee increases and use as compromise to increase H1 numbers(even post CIR).
And we thought life was tough now, imagine paying 10K for every H1 extension and not being able to consult and status quo on current GC system still place. Thats a hair raising thought for me.
If people think that after CIR fails, we will have a better chance of getting favorable provisions with some other Bill or on coat tails of appropriation bills, it could be a risky gamble.
However, looking at the mood of Senate there is a very good chance that post-CIR we might be thrown a curve ball with some hard line H1B restrictions and fee increases extracted from almost passed CIR. So opposing CIR due to H1 alone is not the best strategy.
CIR is on the table because there are lot of interests driving its existence. If Compete America and us(IV) cannot drive in a small amendment into a popular bill like this, it would be a big blow. Is there enough bite in the coalition to create our own bill or fight an anti-H1 wave out there? That's up for judgement.
My point is, please do not assume H1B status quo will stay that way even if CIR fails. Like someone pointed out in these forums, big Corporations might enlist these anti-consulting restrictions/fee increases and use as compromise to increase H1 numbers(even post CIR).
And we thought life was tough now, imagine paying 10K for every H1 extension and not being able to consult and status quo on current GC system still place. Thats a hair raising thought for me.
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gc_mania_03
07-09 07:43 PM
http://www.ahslaw.com/documents/AHSLawsuit.pdf
This document gives lot of legal details, states what the lawsuits exactly is..
P.S : I Think its just filed, not accepted by the court as of now
What are we fighting for now? We are expending all energies for temporary relief. I do not mean to belittle how important this step is for people who have been waiting to file for their 485s/EADs.
But, couldnt these organization sue USCIS over the past years for being inefficient and squandering so many visa that could have helped a lot of us...Why isnt anyone talking about that? Should the new law suit also include the complaints of inefficiencies at USCIS and the cause of lost visas...
Or am I just being naive with this thought...
This document gives lot of legal details, states what the lawsuits exactly is..
P.S : I Think its just filed, not accepted by the court as of now
What are we fighting for now? We are expending all energies for temporary relief. I do not mean to belittle how important this step is for people who have been waiting to file for their 485s/EADs.
But, couldnt these organization sue USCIS over the past years for being inefficient and squandering so many visa that could have helped a lot of us...Why isnt anyone talking about that? Should the new law suit also include the complaints of inefficiencies at USCIS and the cause of lost visas...
Or am I just being naive with this thought...
more...
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go_guy123
05-26 07:32 PM
The applicant was found to be inadmissible pursuant to section 212(a(6)(C)(ii) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (the Act), for falsely claiming to be a U.S. citizen.
http://www.uscis.gov/err/H4%20-%20Application%20for%20Reentry%20after%20Removal%2 0or%20Aggravated%20Felony%20Conviction/Decisions_Issued_in_2008/Jun162008_07H4212.pdf
In fact he was married to US citizen and didn't need to lie at all. He brought it upon himself.
http://www.uscis.gov/err/H4%20-%20Application%20for%20Reentry%20after%20Removal%2 0or%20Aggravated%20Felony%20Conviction/Decisions_Issued_in_2008/Jun162008_07H4212.pdf
In fact he was married to US citizen and didn't need to lie at all. He brought it upon himself.
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Daisy
10-25 02:15 PM
My EB3 India PD: March 2003
June filer
June filer
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ajay
04-13 10:12 AM
A very useful piece of information has been brought to our attention by shiankuraaf.
Thank you very much!
http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/publications/LPR08.shtm
Table 6 Persons Obtaining Legal Permanent Resident Status by Type and Major Class of Admission: Fiscal Years 1999 to 2008
http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/publications/YrBk04Im.shtm
Table 4 Immigrants admitted by type and selected class of admission: fiscal years 1986-2004
Employment-based preferences (Total Number)
Year QUOTA ISSUED Unused/Excessively used
1986 140000 56617 83383
1987 140000 57519 82481
1988 140000 58727 81273
1989 140000 57741 82259
1990 140000 58192 81808
1991 140000 59525 80475
1992 140000 116198 23802
1993 140000 147012 -7012
1994 140000 123291 16709
1995 140000 85336 54664
1996 140000 117499 22501
1997 140000 90607 49393
1998 140000 77517 62483
1999 140000 56678 83322
2000 140000 106642 33358
2001 140000 178702 -38702
2002 140000 173814 -33814
2003 140000 81727 58273
2004 140000 155330 -15330
2005 140000 246877 -106877
2006 140000 159081 -19081
2007 140000 162176 -22176
2008 140000 166511 -26511
Sum total of the differences from 1986 to 2008: 626,681. Vow!!!
So when looked between the period of 1986 and 2008,
there were a total of 626,681 un-used visa numbers that can be re-captured.
This is based on the BIG assumption that the yearly quota for EB categories is 140,000 from 1986 to 2008.
Does anybody know how to verify this important assumption online --a link to a gov website perhaps?
It would be good to verify when the law specifying 140,000 visa numbers per year was passed and
what were the criteria for visa number usage prior to the existence of the law.
It is clearly a well prepared format and nobody has brought this kind of helpful information to our group. We would need people like you and I am sure I will also support this if we are aggressively pursuing it. But again as somebody here said in this discussion that we should be careful about the seriousness of the situation being counted by the lawmakers.
Kudos to you.
Thank you very much!
http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/publications/LPR08.shtm
Table 6 Persons Obtaining Legal Permanent Resident Status by Type and Major Class of Admission: Fiscal Years 1999 to 2008
http://www.dhs.gov/ximgtn/statistics/publications/YrBk04Im.shtm
Table 4 Immigrants admitted by type and selected class of admission: fiscal years 1986-2004
Employment-based preferences (Total Number)
Year QUOTA ISSUED Unused/Excessively used
1986 140000 56617 83383
1987 140000 57519 82481
1988 140000 58727 81273
1989 140000 57741 82259
1990 140000 58192 81808
1991 140000 59525 80475
1992 140000 116198 23802
1993 140000 147012 -7012
1994 140000 123291 16709
1995 140000 85336 54664
1996 140000 117499 22501
1997 140000 90607 49393
1998 140000 77517 62483
1999 140000 56678 83322
2000 140000 106642 33358
2001 140000 178702 -38702
2002 140000 173814 -33814
2003 140000 81727 58273
2004 140000 155330 -15330
2005 140000 246877 -106877
2006 140000 159081 -19081
2007 140000 162176 -22176
2008 140000 166511 -26511
Sum total of the differences from 1986 to 2008: 626,681. Vow!!!
So when looked between the period of 1986 and 2008,
there were a total of 626,681 un-used visa numbers that can be re-captured.
This is based on the BIG assumption that the yearly quota for EB categories is 140,000 from 1986 to 2008.
Does anybody know how to verify this important assumption online --a link to a gov website perhaps?
It would be good to verify when the law specifying 140,000 visa numbers per year was passed and
what were the criteria for visa number usage prior to the existence of the law.
It is clearly a well prepared format and nobody has brought this kind of helpful information to our group. We would need people like you and I am sure I will also support this if we are aggressively pursuing it. But again as somebody here said in this discussion that we should be careful about the seriousness of the situation being counted by the lawmakers.
Kudos to you.
mirage
03-17 12:26 PM
As far as I know there are atleast 5-6K applicants waiting with PDs before Dec-2003. Considering 3 visas used for each applicant. There'll be a requirement of atleast 15-20K Green Card numbers for Indian EB3 to clear people up to Dec'2003. While EB3 gets a maximum of 3K/Year. My guess is it'll take 5-6 Years to get the EB3 to Dec'2003.
If we assume this poll is a mirror of actual application load at USCIS then 70% applications were filed before January 2005 (529/750). Out of 529, 223 were filed during June 2003 or before (42% load). Now during last May-June 2007 EB3-I's current PD reached to June 2003. So assuming current stuck ones were product of either PBEC/DBEC labor approval delay and /or Name check delay, they will be virtually ready to go, I mean get a GC rightaway. People with PD having DEC 2003 and before will have fair chance as well.
If we assume this poll is a mirror of actual application load at USCIS then 70% applications were filed before January 2005 (529/750). Out of 529, 223 were filed during June 2003 or before (42% load). Now during last May-June 2007 EB3-I's current PD reached to June 2003. So assuming current stuck ones were product of either PBEC/DBEC labor approval delay and /or Name check delay, they will be virtually ready to go, I mean get a GC rightaway. People with PD having DEC 2003 and before will have fair chance as well.
a_yaja
07-09 04:47 PM
I hope this lawsuit fails. Looking ahead this lawsuit, if it succeeds might do us more damage than good. Law of unintended consequences states that something can happen we haven't thought of.
Supposing, if lawsuit goes ahead and wins, one outcome might be - USCIS might start adhering to strict interpretation of 7% per country, or curtail spillovers drastically. Then we are in deep shit.
How can USCIS adher to 7% per country quota when AC21 explicitly says that if visas are still available after allotment to ROW, the remaining visas must spill over to the over subscribed countries?
As a result of failure of this lawsuite, if they start adhering to 7% cap, then they are in violation of AC21. That would be another lawsuite for sure.
Supposing, if lawsuit goes ahead and wins, one outcome might be - USCIS might start adhering to strict interpretation of 7% per country, or curtail spillovers drastically. Then we are in deep shit.
How can USCIS adher to 7% per country quota when AC21 explicitly says that if visas are still available after allotment to ROW, the remaining visas must spill over to the over subscribed countries?
As a result of failure of this lawsuite, if they start adhering to 7% cap, then they are in violation of AC21. That would be another lawsuite for sure.
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