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  • abracadabra102
    01-03 02:48 PM
    Writer, Shuja Nawaz
    http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about


    Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
    December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
    Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan’s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
    The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government’s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India’s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a “limited war”.
    For Pakistan, there is no concept of “limited war”. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian’s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the “poison pill” defence of its nuclear weapons.
    The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
    The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country’s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan’s attack on seven major Indian cities:
    NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
    Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
    Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that “could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.” More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
    An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
    This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)

    This guy sounds as though some injustice was done to Pakistan during 1971 war and conveniently forgets about the atrocities committed by Pakistani soldiers in Bangladesh. Millions were killed, raped or maimed. Around 10 million bangladeshis fled to India. India fought a just war and gave independence to Bangladesh. India did not occupy any of Pakistani territories despite a resounding victory (Entire Pakistan army was rolled up in less than 2 weeks). 1971 war brought back democracy to Pakistan.

    Regarding war casualities, yes, wars cost lives. 60 million died during WW-II and most of these are from allies (85%). Russia alone lost around 30 million.

    In fact, India can pre-emptively strike Pakistan with nukes and take out Pakistan. A few nukes fired by Pakistan may slip through and kill some Indians but majority casualities will be from Pakistan.

    Here is some guesstimate of India-Pakistan nuclear arsenal (http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jsws/jsws020530_1_n.shtml)

    If India waits longer, Pakistan builds more nukes and threat to India only increases and may end up taking in more casualities later. And yes, Pakistan will attack if it is confident of destroying India with first strike. It is, after all, run by military junta which is hand in glove with all these terror groups.

    But none of this will happen. India is run by hizdas.





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  • mariner5555
    03-26 04:19 PM
    Good points. If I recall correctly baby boomers started retiring 2-3 years ago. With economy going south, I wonder how many of them are in financial trouble. Also, they are growing older and some of them dying. You have to believe this will add to the supply. you bet - This is from Jubak at MSN money ..

    ---
    That initial hole was largely demographic. The number of Americans 65 and older is projected to increase to 69.4 million in 2030 from 35.5 million in 2000, the Census Bureau says. That's not entirely bad news -- much of the increase comes from Americans living longer -- but it is a problem if you're trying to figure out how to pay for all those people to retire.

    Because the baby-boom generation is so much bigger than succeeding generations, the ratio of people in the retirement years, 65 and older, to those in the working years, 20 to 64, will rise from 20.6% in 2005 to 35.5% in 2030, according to the Census Bureau.

    For most people, the house they live in is their biggest retirement asset. In retirement, people cash in on the value of their homes by selling and then buying less expensive houses, renting or moving in with the kids. More people are also using reverse mortgages to extract equity from their homes in retirement.
    In a Feb. 28 conference call, mortgage buyer Fannie Mae (FNMN, news, msgs) said it expected the real-estate market to bottom in 2009 after a total drop of 15% to 20%. That would produce a loss of roughly $3 trillion to $4 trillion.





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  • chanduv23
    03-25 03:50 PM
    ok..lets see how it goes.

    I did not hire an attorney nor took a consultation..I thought folks here on IV combined are as good as an attorney :D

    Just came from the Post office..sent all documents they asked for including Resume.

    I dont know if my employer responded..I called them but they didn't respond..typical..huh

    Lets see how it goes..

    Should something bad happen (Which I dont understand why it would), you will see me in
    "Alberta Welcomes H1b" thread.. :D:D:D

    It is always good to utilize services of a good Attorney for complex situations. But anyways good luck.





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  • kc_p21
    12-26 12:58 PM
    I suggest that you provide your opinion on some other forum. This forum is only for Immigration matters. Learn to use it appropriately.

    Thanks,



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  • sanju
    12-28 01:10 AM
    I hope so.

    I agree with most of what you said. I just think that the expectation to shed the inertia built over two to three decades is a bit too much. It is going to take time, regardless of what anyone wants. Ironically, hostile relationships between India and Pakistan are only going to prolong the process.

    I disagree, this is not the hostile relationship between two countries, we see this as one country and the international community applying pressure on Pakistan. Without this pressure, there is no way Pakistan will gather the "motivation" to dismantle the terror network. The terror network will get dismantled only if there are two choices, either Pakistan dismantles the terror network or we will dismantle it for Pakistan. Without a direct approach, nothing will change.

    On a different note, there is only one outcome of over analysis by computer analyst or business application analyst, and that outcome is -war is too "expensive". What about the lives of those 200 people who were killed? Please don't expense those 200 lives and other 100,000 lives in last 10 years by your "over analytical" computer analyst Mircosoft projects approach calculating the "cost of the war". What if it is your father who is targated by the terrorist next, I want to know who all will still run the profit and loss statement if your father is killed by the next strike by the terrorist. Will you only agree to a war when your own family member is killed? Don't you think its time to put the bleeding innocent people ahead of this "over analysis".

    We are peace loving people. But should we not respond to the war we did not start. We are not the aggressor, we are the victim here for christ sake.

    Wars are decided by brave men, wars are faught by warriors, and wars are won by patriots. Over analysis at the time of war is a sign of weakness - message of Gita. I hope we agree that War is not like a lala shop to prepare a profit & loss statement before making a decision. We did not start this war, it is being forced on us. The question is - should we respond to the war that is forced on us, the war we did not start, but the war which we have the strength to end.


    .





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  • sanju
    05-17 10:08 AM
    You have no arguments that make sense. You are arguing that doing something illegal is a great thing to do. Not so. And yes, I do support the bill as it will weed out some fraudsters from amongst us, who give the H-1B program a very bad rep.

    The problem is not that it will "weed out some fraudsters from amongst us", the problem is that it will also force deserving people to leave, people waiting in line for 6 or more years in green card line. No one is arguing that "something illegal is a great thing to do" but the argument is, it is justified to implicate and screw-up someone who has done nothing wrong. Durbin-Grassley bill says that it intends to stop abuse and it goes ahead to screw-up everybody. Do you think that everybody here waiting for employment based green card is "illegal"???



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  • milind70
    08-03 09:22 PM
    Do you really think they would send the G-325a to the consulate? Do the consulates keep all the records? For how long? I heard from immigrationportal, somebody said they only send G-325a to the consulate if one applied a visa within one year prior to AOS application. Can anyone confirm this?

    If they send everyone's G-325a form to the consulates, would that result in another backlog? Thanks.

    This is really a grey area, as per the field manual visa's issued by consulate/embassies less than a year are verified or checked. Less than a year is because the dept of states purges data a year old thats why less than a year time frame they send the copy to consulate for checks . But the grey area I am talking about is ,lets say i applied for 485 in july 2007 and i got my H1 stamped in sept 2006 by the time my case is processed it will be most probably oct 2007 (liek data fed in etc) now in oct 2007 when they process the checks DOS would have purged the data ,so in turn when they process your checks yourr visa issuance date shoudl be over a year as the consulates and embassies wil purge data one year old. I am talking about normal cases where visa stamping is very straight forward ,revalidation or extension etc.





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  • bfadlia
    01-07 11:26 AM
    I participated in the "mumbai attacked" thread, but always tried not to give any analysis of the history because I sure don't have the background not belonging to the region..
    yet I'm reading the darnest things here from people who apparently read 2 lines from wikipedia, copy and paste here then start talking like they know everything about the arab-israeli conflict and think they can analyze it..

    The phrase foxnews and similar media have everyone parroting here is "Israel is surrounded by hostile arab countries that waged wars against it several times. Israel is always in self defense" Let's see..

    1948: Israeli Irgun and Shtern gangs, the prototype of the israeli army were going village to village massacring palestinians to drive them out of their villages to annex them to newly created israel which they did.. arab nations who were mostly still under colonial influence sent their police-like forces to try to protect the palestinians, but of course they were no match for the mostly european WWII-veterans Israeli forces

    1956: In a dispute between Egypt, Britain and France over the control of Suez canal that in no way involves Israel, Israel attacked Egypt and took control of Sinai peninsula until Soviets and US urged it to leave.

    1967: Without a single bullet shot at Israel, it attacked Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Gaza and the west bank, occupying Egypt's Sinai, Syria's Golan heights, and annexing gaza, East Jerusalem and the west bank.

    1973: Only time Arabs started the offensive, Egypt and Syria attacked to get back their occupied lands. Egypt managed to get part of Sinai, and got the rest through peace treaty. Syria failed and the golan is still occupied till this day.

    1982: Israel invading Lebanon and occupying southern Lebanon till 2000.. Reason was meddling in a conflict between Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Lebanese factions in which none of these parties attacked Israel.

    60 years have passed with the civilized world issuing UN resolutions for israel to end its occupation and to let the millions of displaced Palestinians return to their homes inside israel and Israel rejecting them. Then we have the courage to blame the Palestinians for not taking it easy, accepting the miserable conditions israel imposed on them and firing their 7000 fire crackers that killed 4 people.. the ungrateful bastards!!



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  • unitednations
    07-08 04:30 PM
    unitednations..!!

    r u the same from immigrationportal.com.. !! people r looking out for u in this immigration greencard darkness..

    Yes, that is the same person. I felt discouraged and decided to not actively post; unless there is some real interesting issue.

    I consider this a real interesting issue.





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  • rsdang
    08-11 04:56 PM
    One day, in line at the company cafeteria, Joe says to Mike behind him, "My elbow hurts like hell. I guess I'd better see a doctor."

    "Listen, you don't have to spend that kind of money," Mike replies. "There's a diagnostic computer down at Wal-Mart. Just give it a urine sample and the computer will tell you what's wrong and what to do about it. It takes ten seconds and costs ten dollars . A lot cheaper than a doctor."

    So, Joe deposits a urine sample in a small jar and takes it to Wal-Mart.

    He deposits ten dollars, and the computer lights up and asks for the urine sample. He pours the sample into the slot and waits.

    Ten seconds later, the computer ejects a printout:
    "You have tennis elbow. Soak your arm in warm water and avoid heavy activity. It will improve in two weeks. Thank you for shopping @ Wal-Mart." That evening, while thinking how amazing this new technology was, Joe began wondering if the computer could be fooled.

    He mixed some tap water, a stool sample from his dog, urine samples from his wife and daughter, and a sperm sample for good measure.

    Joe hurries back to Wal-Mart, eager to check the results. He deposits ten dollars, pours in his concoction, and awaits the results.

    The computer prints the following:

    1. Your tap water is too hard. Get a water softener. (Aisle 9)
    2. Your dog has ringworm. Bathe him with anti-fungal shampoo. (Aisle 7)
    3. Your daughter has a cocaine habit. Get her into rehab.
    4. Your wife is pregnant. Twins. They aren't yours. Get a lawyer.
    5. If you don't stop playing with yourself, your elbow will never get better!
    :D



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-07 12:30 PM
    Thanks for the compliments.

    H1B, Labor, I140, I485, EAD, AP, PD, RD, ND, VB, RFE – Sucks man, had enough.

    In fact I am so relaxed and laughed many times for the past 2 days. I read so many jokes and picked the good ones, I really enjoyed doing this.

    Thanks for all those for their encouragement, positive comments and yes, Green dots.

    If the trend continues, I think very soon I can beat Pappu in terms of number of green dots (Ssssssss!!! don’t let Pappu know about this till then, ok :))


    nogc_noproblem , u r 5 star *****





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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-22 03:10 PM
    A man walks into a bar and he's really pissed.

    The bartender gives him a drink and asks what the problem is. All he says is, "All lawyers are idiots."

    A man sitting in the corner shouts, "I take offense to that!"

    The pissed-off guy asks him, "Why? Are you a lawyer?"

    He replies, "No, I'm an idiot."



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  • pitha
    04-07 11:02 PM
    Restrictionist and proctionist measures have a high probability of passing than anything relatively pro immigration. With or without strive this will pass. If not as a stand alone bill then as rider in any other bills (appropriations budget etc). All those lawmakers who were preaching against adding any immigration related issues as riders to other bills will turn the other way when this draconian measure is added as a rider to other bills.

    Ability to file 485 without priority date is the only measure that will help people already on h1.When the whole discussion regarding ability to file 485 even when priority date is not available was being discussed, people who have already filed 485 and were opposing the 485 measure were saying things like, there is no advantage with EAD, you can keep on extending h1, now see what happenned.

    People who seem to think that this measure will help people on h1 by curtailing consulting companies are being naive. Far from helping us get full time jobs because of non availability of contractors it will speed up outsourcing of the projects overseas. To all those people who are in full time positions (including me) who seem to think this will not affect them because they are in full time non consulting jobs, think again. With current GC processing times running into 7 to 10 years (may be even more), you have to understand that there is no job nor company in US which will guarantee a job for such a long time. Without EAD we are screwed. If you lose the job before getting the EAD then you will have to get a full time job in a non consulting company, chances for getting such a job are very slim (because its not just about getting a full time job alone but getting it as quickly as possible, remember you don�t have the luxury of a couple of months to get a full time job when you are on h1). There is no concrete answer but the general rule of thumb is that if you get a new job within a few weeks (2 to 3 weeks at most) USCIS will usually approve the transfer. Now ask yourself this question if you are laid off what is the probability of getting a new full time job within 2 weeks when on h1. The chances are very slim. To all those people who are saying this new bill might be good for us think about a bad case scenario like what happens if you lose the job, not best case scenarios. It is a lot easier to get a consulting job in 2 weeks than a full time job.

    This bill could go as a rider to STRIVE, there is less chance of STRIVE being passed as it is. So both these things will go hand in hand or nothing will pass.
    before expanding H1B they will have to tight the programe.





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  • gsc999
    11-15 12:39 PM
    Lets not give him more attention and importance than he deserves.

    Democrat win in Nov. elections is slap in the face for all anti-immigrant entities including these talk/news shows like Lou Doubs. This is end for Lou.

    It will be a day to remember when CIR finally passes both houses and he chockingly acknowledges that he had been supporting a comprehensive immigration plan all along ;)



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  • thuristic
    04-18 05:44 PM
    Lou Dobbs at CNN is doing a quick vote to justify his oppinions against amnesty. So far, the majority of the vote is "against" rather than "for". I myself am not a big fan of the proposal becauses it deminishes efforts put in by legal immigrats like ourselves but regardless consider it necessary for us to support as it currently is the only bill alive including retrogression relief along with amnesty.

    Media generates publicity by twisting a small fraction of reality. Imagine what Lou would say if he gets a unanimous vote against amnesty. I am sure he will make the best of it to promote negativism towards any relief efforts regardless of it being amnesty or retrogression relief. Please go to the URL below and cast your support vote!

    Question: Do you believe Congress should first demand that our borders and ports be secured before taking up immigration reform?


    http://www.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/lou.dobbs.tonight/





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  • hiralal
    06-05 11:48 PM
    here is a superb report ...really worth reading ..
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/14166113/T2-Partners-Presentation-on-the-Mortgage-Crisis4309-3



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  • nk2006
    06-01 04:49 PM
    All these cable channels are after "ratings". Now that Bush administration has low popular support (based on surveys), these guys saw an opportunity to rouse people emotions and get some better ratings (different kind of vultures). Immigration is always a touchy subject at any time and at any place. Its easy to blame "aliens" for all the current problems. Many people can fall prey to this if they are not well informed. Its very unfortunate and sad that even major media houses are hosting these opportunistic journos. Sure immigration has to be discussed with different view points and should be analyzed to see how it impact's the country but these self-appointed crusaders give blatant misinformation. Even more sad is giving absurd figures/data and claim that its from "independent research".

    Low Dobbs was never a known journalist until he started this rant. The most hilarous part of his show is that question of the day part. He "conveniently" frames the questions to get a desired answer (everyone know who watch and also vote those questions) and then even quotes the result as a support of what he is saying (its obvious he didnt take stats101). As someone else mentioned on another thread its best to just ignore what he says - he dont add any value to any serious discussion.

    Its also MSNBC. Just look at Tucker Carlson and Joe Scarborough.

    If you hear Tucker Carlson on MSNBC, he sounds like the protege of Jeff Sessions.

    However, one difference between Tucker Carlson and Lou Dobbs. Tucker supports(or atleast pretends to support) the legal variety.

    Lou Dobbs openly opposes all immigration.





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  • damialok
    03-26 01:43 PM
    I agree that credit crunch is worst we have ever seen and the worst is still about 9-12 months away. A lot of investment banks are going to be in trouble. I work for a big financial services comp and even though they say they are not affected, I know that their 'high-yeild low-risk' funds lost around $30billion. Who pays for this? investors? hmm China/Japan.. maybe. But Ben Bernanke is keen on doing whatever it takes to jumstart the economy. So he is printing dollars and reducing interest rates to historic lows(considering 60 year cycles). When I bought my first home in 2001, the rate was 8.5%. Whats it now 5.5%?
    So my view is that inflation is a bigger problem that Ben B does not want to tackle in the near future(3-4 months). Well in times of inflation your savings/investment is better in real-estate than anything else. But definitely NOT cash.

    So although we might be near the bottom of real estate market, we can never guesstimate the bottom until it has passed. My advice is, negotiate hard(buyers market) and get into a deal now. As a safety net, you can ask for a long escrow(around 180 days). That way you can backout of the deal if things head south. You've only lost the deposit(subject to arbitration at least in California).

    Someone pointed out that Visa Status is a smaller issue, the big issue is if you can hold onto your investment for atleast 5 years, you are golden.

    I believe that having a job(well paid) in recession is an investors dream as everything is on SALE.





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  • belmontboy
    03-25 02:56 PM
    is there a website/magazine where i can get list of foreclosed properties?





    msp1976
    03-04 01:01 PM
    I wish that you would drop whatever you have in your signature....George Allen was one of the co-sponsors of the original SKIL bill...He was sympathetic to our cause...Now when he made those comments he was pandering to certain local sentiments....Conservative senators have been more sympathetic to us than democrats...It is time to stop beating that dead horse...





    simple1
    06-05 01:00 PM
    The arguments like the following works for gc/usc only, who can stay put even after loosing job. The H1b has to leave the country.
    - best time to buy
    - inflation level of the real high prices
    - lock low interest rates now.
    - clean/strong foreclosure houses available now.
    - federal incentive to buy house.
    - downpayment assistance.
    - etc.



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